For almost every Test cricket fan, nothing symbolises quality Test cricket than the sight of a superb fast bowler steaming in with the new ball to dislodge a top batsman. It surely can't get better than this! I have grown up in the 1990s watching and admiring brilliant line and length bowlers like Curtly Ambrose and Courtney Walsh, the quick Allan Donald and the talented Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis. Despite having missed the action in the previous decades which witnessed the best of West Indian fast bowling and the aggression of Dennis Lillee and Jeff Thomson, I have managed to catch the best matches and moments on video. Comparing fast bowlers is as old a debate as the one on who the best batsman is. Intrigued as I have been by this debate, I decided to analyse the great fast bowlers statistically to try and come up with the answer to the big question- Who is the greatest of them all?
Firstly, I decided to consider only the top fast bowlers from each team (only post World War 2 bowlers considered due to similarity of conditions). The criteria for shortlisting the bowlers is purely the bowling average and strike rate after considering all bowlers with a minimum haul of 200 wickets. Here is the distribution.
Format-> Bowler (wickets)
1. Australia- Ray Lindwall (228), Dennis Lillee (355), Glenn McGrath (563)
2. England- Fred Truman (302), Ian Botham (383), Bob Willis (325)
3. India- Kapil Dev (434)
4. New Zealand- Richard Hadlee (431)
5. Pakistan- Imran Khan (362), Wasim Akram (414), Waqar Younis (373)
6. South Africa- Allan Donald (330), Shaun Pollock (421), Dale Steyn (238)
7. Sri Lanka- Chaminda Vaas (355)
8. West Indies -Malcolm Marshall (376), Curtly Ambrose (405), Michael Holding (249),Joel Garner (259)
There can be several books written about the fantastic exploits of these legends, but I shall restrict myself to the task of explaining the various parameters I have used in the analysis.
Although most parameters are self explanatory, I shall provide a brief idea about each of them.
The main factor used in all calculations is the quality factor which is the product of the strike rate and the bowling average. The lower the value, the better the bowler's performance. In all factors, the highest score is used as the base and the other numbers are normalised.
1. factor 1: Overall career quality factor (bowling average and strike rate)
Dale Steyn, by virtue of his outstanding strike rate is on top while Marshall's average of 20.94 brings him second.
2. factor 2: five wicket hauls: Innings per five wicket haul is used to measure the bowler's match-winning ability.
Richard Hadlee is on top followed by Steyn.
3. factor 3: performance in wins: the quality factor is measured in wins.
Once again, Hadlee and Steyn are on top.
4. factor 4: Away performance: accords bonus to bowler if more than 50% of his wickets are in away Tests and measures quality factor in away wins.
Michael Holding and Marshall are on top. Note that Dennis Lillee loses out as a result of not playing many Tests outside Australia and England.
5. factor 5: top-order wickets: percentage of top-order wickets. Vaas and Pollock are slightly ahead of the rest of the pack.
6. factor 6- 3rd and 4th innings performance- measures quality factor in the vital phase of Tests.Marshall and Donald are on top.
7. factor 7- performance w.r.t peers: complex factor which measures quality of peers both in the same team and other teams. Care is taken to ensure that a bowler does not gain significantly if he has played in a weak team (eg Hadlee).
Steyn and Trueman come out on top.
8. factor 8: Performance against the best teams (3 or 4 at most)- Marshall and Trueman are on top.
9. factor 9: Performance in tough bowling conditions: batting average in the period is used to measure which conditions have been the best for batsmen i.e. toughest for bowlers. Bowler stats in these countries is used to calculate this factor.
Marshall and Steyn are on top. Lillee loses out again as a result of poor performances in the few matches he played outside Australia and England.
10. factor 10: best years- The best years (4/5) of the bowler are used to calculate this factor so that the peak performance can be compared.
Imran Khan and Waqar Younis are on top.
Bonus points are given to allrounders who have contributed to Test wins in the batting department too.
Finally, when the results are checked, Malcolm Marshall comes out on top and deservedly so. He performed superbly and was the best of the Wi pacemen. He also impressed in India and Pakistan which were regarded as graveyards for fast bowlers. Steyn comes a very close second by virtue of a stunning start to his career. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this for the next five years. The next five are Hadlee, Imran, Waqar, Donald and Ambrose. It's highly unlikely that anyone will have complaints about the rankings of these greats. McGrath, Akram and Lillee come within the top 15. The last few positions belong to Botham, Kapil Dev and Vaas, who despite s rich haul of wickets, were definitely not as potent and threatening in all conditions as the bowlers in the top five.
It was an enthralling exercise to go through the amazing stats of these legendary pace bowlers and an even more interesting exercise to work out the parameters. Now all I want to do is get my hands on a collection of DVDs where I can watch some classic fast bowling, which is truly the most endearing aspect of Test cricket.
4 comments:
Is there a average speed/pace you can factor in as well to see does fastest mean bestest???
..im surprised Brett Lee doesnt figure much at all! interesting....
i wonder how bad their shoulders were end of it all...some upperlimb surgeon did well :D in private practice
excellent, its the 1st article o urs that i finished in 10 mins.. and understood.. proud o you!! idhu maare lay man kum konjam ezhdungo officer..
well lot of hard work gone into it. Kudos Madhu.... but Dale Steyn just stands out, he is the only active player in the list and i think he should have not been considered with the rest who are all legends(if i can say so),till the end of his career. But again this stat may reflect the newest entrant to the legend list. Anyways this article should be a tribute to all those fast bowlers who are always in the shadows of the hard hitting batsmen.
There should be been a factor that takes in no. of yrs played normalized with the avg. longevity of bowlers in the relevant era. That might have brought steyn down.
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