Tuesday, April 19, 2011

The Don's Achilles heel??



It would be sacrilegious to even consider comparing any batsman with Don Bradman. He is so far ahead of the rest of the pack that it defies logic. It is fair to say that no sport has witnessed such an extraordinary domination by one player. Bradman made tons of runs, scored them remarkably quickly, was involved in numerous record partnerships and averaged near 100 which is astounding. Before I go further, let me summarise a few of Bradman's outstanding records that are unlikely to be matched, let along bettered.

1. 29 centuries in just 52 matches (80 innings)- 1 hundred per 2.75 innings. Headley comes close with one every four innings (10 in 40).

2. Bradman scored 974 runs in a single series in 1929-30 against England. The closest is Hammond's 905 in the 1928-29 series.

3. His lowest average in a series was 55 in the Bodyline series and that was considered a failure.

4. He was one of the quickest scorers and scored 300 runs in a day.

5. In 1936-37, he scored 270, 169 and 212 as Australia fought back to win the series 3-2 after being 2-0 down.

6. His average is first class cricket is over 95 with 117 centuries in around 234 games. Merchant and Headley average nearly 70 (next best)!!

7. Has a 400 and 300+ stand with Bill Ponsford and a 346 run stand with Jack Fingleton.

8. Lost six of his best years to the World War. You can only imagine what his record might have been otherwise.

9. Led his team called the 'Invincibles' in 1948 to England. Did not lose a single game. Australia piled up 700 in a day against Essex.

10. Scored a century as Australia chased down 404 (then a record chase in Tests)

Ok. before you start thinking what is the objective of my piece, let me tell you that analysing stats is useless unless the context is considered.

As an example, I read CLR James' classic 'Beyond a Boundary'- a highly recommended read. In that book and a couple of others, I came across the point that Bradman was the prime example of a batsman who feasted on bowling in good conditions (read flat tracks) but struggled on the really tough ones (sticky/wet wickets). While it is not possible to establish the nature of the wickets without actually seeing them, I have jus done a brief analysis of how Bradman fared in matches where the team posted less than 300. As it turns out, in 22 such innings, he averages just over 28 with 2 centuries, a far cry from his astronomical career numbers. There can be arguments about how other batsmen failed and the reverse logic of the team failing when he failed. Hobbs and Headley were thought of as better players in tougher conditions and I shall try to establish this with some analysis soon. But at the moment, can I dare suppose that this can be considered the 'Achilles Heel' of the great Don??

Bradman in innings where the team total has been less than 300

43 and 0: vs West Indies

13: vs India

2: vs South Africa

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rest vs England

1 and 18

8

0 and 103*

8 and 66

24

71

36 and 13

38 and 0

0

26

103

12

7

Total = 592 in 21 (22 innings and 1 n.o)

Average of 28.2 in innings where Aussies were dismissed for less than 300 shows that he scored when it was lot easier and did struggle when the going was tough.

In a similar context (team scores less than 300), George Headley scored 817 runs at an average of nearly 38 with four centuries. He wasn't known as the 'Black Bradman' for nothing. Hobbs (of 199 FC centuries fame) scored 1639 runs in a similar context at an average of close to 40. I am not sure if this is enough to pass a judgment. That is not my intention anyway, but just an example to show that career figures of any batsman/bowler must be broken down and analysed in greater detail before coming to a conclusion.

Case in point are the stats of Sunny Gavaskar against WI- 12 of his 34 hundreds against them. In matches when Holding/Marshall did not play, he had 6 hundreds at an average over 91. In games they played, he averaged 41. But even the 41 is bloated, because in 20 innings, he scored a 236* and 147* in dead draws. He scored 594 runs in 4 innings and just 151 in the remaining 16 at an average less than 10 and did not pass 20 even once in the 7 innings he was dismissed by Marshall between 1982-83 and 1983-84.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

Ace of Pace

For almost every Test cricket fan, nothing symbolises quality Test cricket than the sight of a superb fast bowler steaming in with the new ball to dislodge a top batsman. It surely can't get better than this! I have grown up in the 1990s watching and admiring brilliant line and length bowlers like Curtly Ambrose and Courtney Walsh, the quick Allan Donald and the talented Wasim Akram and Waqar Younis. Despite having missed the action in the previous decades which witnessed the best of West Indian fast bowling and the aggression of Dennis Lillee and Jeff Thomson, I have managed to catch the best matches and moments on video. Comparing fast bowlers is as old a debate as the one on who the best batsman is. Intrigued as I have been by this debate, I decided to analyse the great fast bowlers statistically to try and come up with the answer to the big question- Who is the greatest of them all?

Firstly, I decided to consider only the top fast bowlers from each team (only post World War 2 bowlers considered due to similarity of conditions). The criteria for shortlisting the bowlers is purely the bowling average and strike rate after considering all bowlers with a minimum haul of 200 wickets. Here is the distribution.

Format-> Bowler (wickets)

1. Australia- Ray Lindwall (228), Dennis Lillee (355), Glenn McGrath (563)
2. England- Fred Truman (302), Ian Botham (383), Bob Willis (325)
3. India- Kapil Dev (434)
4. New Zealand- Richard Hadlee (431)
5. Pakistan- Imran Khan (362), Wasim Akram (414), Waqar Younis (373)
6. South Africa- Allan Donald (330), Shaun Pollock (421), Dale Steyn (238)
7. Sri Lanka- Chaminda Vaas (355)
8. West Indies -Malcolm Marshall (376), Curtly Ambrose (405), Michael Holding (249),Joel Garner (259)

There can be several books written about the fantastic exploits of these legends, but I shall restrict myself to the task of explaining the various parameters I have used in the analysis.

Although most parameters are self explanatory, I shall provide a brief idea about each of them.

The main factor used in all calculations is the quality factor which is the product of the strike rate and the bowling average. The lower the value, the better the bowler's performance. In all factors, the highest score is used as the base and the other numbers are normalised.

1. factor 1: Overall career quality factor (bowling average and strike rate)
Dale Steyn, by virtue of his outstanding strike rate is on top while Marshall's average of 20.94 brings him second.

2. factor 2: five wicket hauls: Innings per five wicket haul is used to measure the bowler's match-winning ability.
Richard Hadlee is on top followed by Steyn.

3. factor 3: performance in wins: the quality factor is measured in wins.
Once again, Hadlee and Steyn are on top.

4. factor 4: Away performance: accords bonus to bowler if more than 50% of his wickets are in away Tests and measures quality factor in away wins.
Michael Holding and Marshall are on top. Note that Dennis Lillee loses out as a result of not playing many Tests outside Australia and England.

5. factor 5: top-order wickets: percentage of top-order wickets. Vaas and Pollock are slightly ahead of the rest of the pack.

6. factor 6- 3rd and 4th innings performance- measures quality factor in the vital phase of Tests.Marshall and Donald are on top.

7. factor 7- performance w.r.t peers: complex factor which measures quality of peers both in the same team and other teams. Care is taken to ensure that a bowler does not gain significantly if he has played in a weak team (eg Hadlee).
Steyn and Trueman come out on top.

8. factor 8: Performance against the best teams (3 or 4 at most)- Marshall and Trueman are on top.

9. factor 9: Performance in tough bowling conditions: batting average in the period is used to measure which conditions have been the best for batsmen i.e. toughest for bowlers. Bowler stats in these countries is used to calculate this factor.
Marshall and Steyn are on top. Lillee loses out again as a result of poor performances in the few matches he played outside Australia and England.

10. factor 10: best years- The best years (4/5) of the bowler are used to calculate this factor so that the peak performance can be compared.
Imran Khan and Waqar Younis are on top.

Bonus points are given to allrounders who have contributed to Test wins in the batting department too.



Finally, when the results are checked, Malcolm Marshall comes out on top and deservedly so. He performed superbly and was the best of the Wi pacemen. He also impressed in India and Pakistan which were regarded as graveyards for fast bowlers. Steyn comes a very close second by virtue of a stunning start to his career. It will be interesting to see if he can maintain this for the next five years. The next five are Hadlee, Imran, Waqar, Donald and Ambrose. It's highly unlikely that anyone will have complaints about the rankings of these greats. McGrath, Akram and Lillee come within the top 15. The last few positions belong to Botham, Kapil Dev and Vaas, who despite s rich haul of wickets, were definitely not as potent and threatening in all conditions as the bowlers in the top five.

It was an enthralling exercise to go through the amazing stats of these legendary pace bowlers and an even more interesting exercise to work out the parameters. Now all I want to do is get my hands on a collection of DVDs where I can watch some classic fast bowling, which is truly the most endearing aspect of Test cricket.